November Retail Sales May Have Risen on Black Friday

Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. retail sales may have risen for the third straight month in November as purchases during the Black Friday weekend propped up holiday sales, a research firm said.

November sales may have advanced 2.4 percent, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Retail Metrics Inc. That compares with a slump of 7.3 percent last year, the Swampscott, Massachusetts-based firm said.

The reported uptick in spending over the Black Friday weekend hasn’t changed the National Retail Federation’s prediction of a 1 percent decline for the holiday-shopping season. Increases in electronics, jewelry and online purchases in November countered declines in apparel, luxury and department-store sales, according to data released today by MasterCard Advisors in its SpendingPulse report.

“Consumer spending has sort of leveled off,” Kamalesh Rao, director of economic research for SpendingPulse, said yesterday in a telephone interview. SpendingPulse measures retail sales across all payment forms, including cash and checks. “It’s not really showing any great growth, but it’s also not showing any great decline.”

The day after U.S. Thanksgiving is known as Black Friday, the traditional beginning of holiday buying. Stores open early on Black Friday, which fell on Nov. 27 this year, and offer discounts to attract shoppers.

Department Stores, Teens

Department stores and teen-apparel retailers may report the steepest declines, according to estimates compiled by Retail Metrics. November sales may have dropped 17.6 percent at Saks Inc., and 10.2 percent at Abercrombie & Fitch Co., according to estimates compiled by Retail Metrics.

Saks, based in New York, rose 6 cents to $6.16 at 9:37 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Abercrombie, based in New Albany, Ohio, gained 13 cents to $40.19.

U.S. retail sales on Black Friday and the ensuing weekend advanced 0.5 percent as discounts on televisions and toys drew budget-conscious crowds, the Washington-based National Retail Federation reported on Nov. 29.

Spending rose to $41.2 billion from $41 billion a year earlier, the NRF said, citing a survey by polling firm BIGresearch. While more people visited stores and Web sites, the average shopper spent $343.31, less than $372.57 a year ago, the federation said.

Prolonged Sales

Black Friday spending rose 0.5 percent to $10.7 billion compared with a year earlier, according to a report released today by ShopperTrak RCT Corp., a Chicago-based research firm. Sales for the full weekend rose 1.6 percent, according to ShopperTrak’s data, while foot traffic declined 1.1 percent.

“While this weekend is a bit encouraging, we’re still comparing to what turned out to be the worst holiday season we’ve ever measured, and smart retailers understand this reality,” said Bill Martin, co-founder of ShopperTrak. “We anticipate slimmer inventories and prolonged sales and promotions will boost December spending.”

ShopperTrak forecasts a 1.6 percent rise in total holiday sales, which include November and December.

Online sales on Cyber Monday, the first Monday after the kickoff of the holiday season, rose 5 percent to $887 million, according to data released today by ComScore Inc. The growth was driven by an increase in shoppers while average spending per buyer decreased, the Reston, Virginia-based research firm said.